The narrative of Ukraine handing up eight Tu-160s, three Tu-95MSs, and 575 Kh-55 missiles to Russia in 1999 as payment for gas debt is frequently cited as an example of lost potential that Russia is currently exploiting. Earlier, we reported that Ukraine was obliged to surrender the Tu-160. Now we’d like to recall another story. In 2011, Ukraine decommissioned and disposed of the Elbrus missile system, commonly known as Scud, which consisted of 185 missiles and 50 launchers.

The R-17 missiles of the Scud system had a range of up to 360 kilometres and a payload weighing up to 900 kg. It might be an ideal instrument for targeting huge military targets in Russia, such as munitions depots or airfields. It is reasonable to assume that this is the type of missile system that Ukraine currently lacks. It’s important remembering the circumstances under which these weapons were deactivated. According to publicly available information, training on these systems took performed in training grounds in Crimea from 1997 to 2001. The missiles and launchers were then placed in storage.

The R-17 ballistic missile for the Scud system was powered by hazardous fuel incorporating Mélange (liquid oxidant rocket propellant component). This endangered the crew of these systems.

Another issue was that these missile systems could only be maintained with the assistance of Russia. There is a considerable cognitive contradiction in including the Russian Federation in the maintenance of weaponry required to deter Russia. In addition, the foreign policy situation was not favourable. The United States has made concerted attempts to eradicate short-range missiles throughout Europe. However, as part of these attempts, not only Ukrainian Elbrus systems were destroyed, but also Soviet Oka systems used by the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. It is also worth recalling the example of Armenia, which in 2020, before the conflict in Karabakh, had 20 missiles and eight Scud launchers, making it the only operator of such a missile system in the entire post-Soviet space. Armenians were able to keep this systems in operation only with direct assistance from russia.

As a result, we might take the following conclusion: instead of discussing lost potential, we should focus on why Ukraine failed to produce a successor for what was lost. Ukraine now lacks its own ballistic missiles to hit Russia, but there is hope that this situation will be remedied in the near future. Earlier, Defence Express stated that a Kh-55 missile discovered in Kyiv offered light on Russia’s tactics behind the November 28 attack.