According to US officials, Ukraine’s forces have lost around half of the land seized in Russia’s Kursk area and may lose the rest in the coming months, thereby depriving Kyiv of vital leverage in peace talks with Russia. Ukraine’s military is already dealing with a manpower shortage and uncertainty about the future flow of supplies from the United States and other allies, all while struggling to repel Russian advances in the east. Ukrainian troops are fighting approximately 12,000 North Korean troops who are assisting the Russians in Kursk, an area in western Russia where Ukrainian forces have seized a swath of terrain.

With Moscow stepping up its efforts to push Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, possibly as soon as next month, Kyiv’s forces may only be able to hold the land until spring before being forced to retreat – or risk being encircled, according to US officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss their confidential assessments. The timing is critical since Ukrainian officials have stated that they intended to use the area captured in Kursk as a bargaining chip in any negotiations. While President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on January 20, has stated that he wants to stop the war quickly, the two sides may take months to agree on a ceasefire due to the intricacy of both Ukrainian and Russian demands.

The Ukrainian president’s office did not respond to a request for comment. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he is unfamiliar with a purported proposal from the incoming Trump administration to pause the war provided Russia is given assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO in the next decade or two. Putin stated unequivocally that such a pact would not benefit Russia.

With Russia presently having the upper hand on the battlefield, it may have an incentive to stall discussions as it wants to reclaim as much territory as possible from Ukraine before negotiations and a potential truce freeze the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine’s soldiers have already managed to stay on the ground in Kursk for longer than expected, thanks in part to the United States’ decision to authorize Kyiv to fire long-range missiles into Russia, according to one official. Another official warned that Ukraine’s intention in Kursk was never to maintain it, but rather to maximize the shock effect of its counter-invasion and further diminish Russia’s strength. So a retreat could still be viewed as a tactical triumph. Two of these officials expressed hope that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will order a retreat from Kursk soon enough to avoid suffering high casualties

‘Massive assaults’ Despite the possibility of a Ukrainian retreat, the assault has already incurred significant costs for both Russian and North Korean forces. According to John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council, North Koreans helping Russia are launching “massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk,” resulting in more than 1,000 deaths or injuries in only the previous week. According to George Barros, who leads the Institute for the Study of War’s Russia and Geospatial Intelligence teams, it has always been evident that Russia has the ability to reclaim Kursk if necessary. However, the Kursk incursion has demonstrated that Russia’s international border isn’t totally safeguarded and might be violated again at other sites, he said, and that employing US-made equipment within Russia

The Ukrainians demonstrated that the battle is not hopelessly stalemated, but rather highly dynamic,” Barros said, demonstrating to friends that it was still worthwhile to back efforts to diminish Russia’s military and economic resources. If Russian forces launch an effective counter-offensive in Kursk, they will most likely target important roads and towns to force a Ukrainian retreat and may deploy additional North Korean troops, according to one official. North Korea might offer roughly 8,000 more soldiers to back Russia’s campaign by spring, according to the official, but the assessment was “low confidence,” which means a definitive conclusion cannot be reached based on the evidence gathered

Even without North Korean forces, Russia is currently able to compensate for its own huge losses, averaging approximately 1,200 personnel each day, according to US assessments. However, one of the authorities stated that without a new mobilization, this level cannot be sustained indefinitely. Putin wishes to avoid a repeat of the unpopular September 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding Kursk, Russian soldiers continue to advance in Ukraine’s east, toward the town of Pokrovsk, a key supply hub from which Kyiv sends troops to and from the front. While Ukrainian troops may be able to improve defences and defend Pokrovsk for some time, one US source stated that it was just a matter of time before Russian forces encircled it, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat or surrender.With help from Skylar Woodhouse and Volodymyr Verbianyi.