Trump has invested a lot of political capital in the cease-fire agreement, so he clearly wants it to hold. Zonszein informs Anadolu. – Netanyahu is wary of unpredictable Trump “because they don’t see eye to eye,” according to Israeli political analyst Ahro  n Bregman. – Netanyahu’s principal interest is political survival. According to Bregman, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition supporters insist on the continuation of the Gaza assault.ISTANBUL

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to become the first foreign leader to meet with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, a visit that comes amid ongoing uncertainty over the Gaza cease-fire and Israel’s escalating violence in the West Bank.

While Trump and Netanyahu, the latter accused by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of war crimes in Gaza, have long shared a close relationship, experts suggest that the dynamics between them may be shifting.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel with the International Crisis Group, pointed out that Netanyahu’s political standing has weakened considerably since the last time he met Trump.

“This is Trump’s second term, and this is Netanyahu coming in after having lost a lot of popularity within Israel and coming in as a weaker leader – somebody who promised to destroy Hamas, and now we see that he’s been kind of forced by Trump to enter a cease-fire deal without having achieved those war objectives,” Zonszein told Anadolu.

She did, however, add that Netanyahu will most certainly strive to align himself with Trump’s interests. Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and former Israeli military commander, anticipates the meeting to be pleasant on the surface but strained behind closed doors. “When Trump and Netanyahu meet in Washington, we should expect a lot of handshakes and smiles. “Behind the scenes, it will be brutal,” he warned. “Netanyahu never relied on Biden, but he is scared of Trump because the president is unpredictable. They do not see eye to eye. Netanyahu wants the Gaza conflict to continue, whilst Trump wants an agreement with Saudi Arabia. To reach an accord with the Saudis, Trump must cease the Gaza war.”

Will Israel continue the Gaza war?

One of the most pressing problems on the agenda will be the condition of the Gaza cease-fire and if Israel would continue its lethal campaign, which has killed or injured around 160,000 Palestinians and left the enclave completely destroyed. According to Israeli media sources, Netanyahu postponed sending his negotiation team to Qatar for talks on the second phase of the cease-fire deal before leaving for the United States. Analysts believe Trump will put significant pressure on Netanyahu to expedite the cease-fire process, which will result in the release of additional Israeli hostages while also clearing the path for an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza and the end of the war.

Zonszein reaffirmed Trump’s desire to move past the Gaza conflict and focus on other regional and domestic concerns, such as Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement. “Trump put a lot of political capital behind the cease-fire deal, so he clearly wants it to happen,” she told me. However, she pointed out that Trump has also proposed contentious ideas, such as relocating Palestinians from Gaza, which is consistent with the goals of the Israeli far-right. “So, what Trump wants is to end the war and remove Hamas from power,” according to her. “Netanyahu can probably live with that – if there’s actually a way to get Hamas out of power in Gaza, which I think is highly unrealistic.” Despite Trump’s efforts, Netanyahu has openly opposed the cease-fire, as his political survival depends on continuing the war, said the expert.

“The question is how much Trump is going to push him, and what he can bring back to his coalition members, specifically the finance minister (Bezalel Smotrich),” Zonszein added.

West Bank settlements and possible annexation. Another key issue scheduled to be discussed behind closed doors is Israeli settlement building in the occupied West Bank and the likelihood of annexation. Netanyahu’s government has aggressively intensified settlement activity and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, while openly proclaiming a desire to seize portions of the land. As recently as Monday, Trump hinted that Israel could take more West Bank area. Responding to a question from reporters in the Oval Office, he answered, “Well, I’m not going to talk about it. It is undeniably a small country in terms of geography. “Actually, it’s a relatively little amount of land, and it’s incredible that they’ve managed to to do what they’ve been able to do. When you think about it, it’s a lot of good smart brain power, but it is a very small piece of land, no question about it.”

Zonszein believes the issue will be addressed during the meeting, though it may not take center stage.

“It’ll be discussed in some way, obviously,” she told me. “Israel has really increased its violence and raids in the West Bank since the minute that the Gaza cease-fire went into effect, and this government in Israel has a very clear agenda of annexing the West Bank.” She also pointed out that numerous prominent members in Trump’s government, like Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik, are staunch proponents of Israeli settlements and annexation. “The question is how much that will play a role in Trump’s bigger plan with Saudi normalization,” she pointed out. “Because Trump cannot pursue Saudi normalization while giving Israel the West Bank. “That’s not going to work.” While she feels the West Bank annexation is not currently a priority for Trump, she warned that Israel has already been annexing the territory in practice.

Gaza’s Future and Governance Finally, Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to debate Gaza’s future government. According to Bregman, both leaders would underline the need to remove Hamas from power, but their techniques will be different. “Trump will want to see Hamas toppled not by direct war, but by promoting his idea of transferring Gazans from the Strip to other places, something which will never work,” according to him. “Trump will also recommend transferring elements from the Palestinian Authority (PA) into the Strip, which Netanyahu is already doing, though he would not admit it. He has agreed to have Abu Mazen’s (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) staff operate the Rafah crossing.”

Zonszein pointed out that Netanyahu has long avoided interacting with Palestinian leadership and has no clear strategy for Gaza’s future. “There’s no real plan on the Israeli side,” she told me. “What is starting to happen in the crossings is that Palestinian Authority officials are beginning to participate in running them, so de facto, there’s no other alternative.” She also noted that Hamas still controls Gaza, leaving no obvious option for administration. She added Trump has a lot of ideas, but his actual plan is unclear, while Israel wants to maintain control of the buffer zone it constructed and remain the de facto security force in Gaza.