When Russian President Vladimir Putin started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he appeared to anticipate that Russian soldiers would overthrow the government in weeks and reestablish Moscow’s power over the country after 30 years of independence. Putin was mistaken, and the war he unleashed continues nearly three years later. It’s difficult to suppose Putin didn’t rethink his decision when militant-led opposition forces took Damascus and deposed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad less than two weeks after commencing an operation. The Kremlin’s attention on the war in Ukraine is one of the elements that contributed to the Syrian rebel offensive’s pace and success. Russian jets increased attacks on rebel-held territory as the offensive began, but with its military capabilities

Analysts say the battlefield will not be large, but it will be determined in part by the fate of Russia’s forces and locations in Syria: the airfield at Hmeimim and the naval complex at Tartus. “A partial or complete withdrawal would free up reconnaissance, air force, special forces, and intelligence assets…” However, Russia’s presence in Syria is likely to be limited to a few thousand troops, according to Dara Massicot, a military analyst and senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, stated in a Telegram post that as of last summer, “there were roughly 6,000-7,000 Russian military men “Even if all these soldiers were transferred to the Russian Federation and then sent to the war against Ukraine, this would not significantly affect the situation on the front, given the rather high daily losses of the Russian Army in assault operations,” according to Kovalenko. The Russian military has incurred significant fatalities as it strives to build on its recent victories, particularly in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, ahead of what is largely believed to be an effort by US President-elect Donald Trump to promote peace when he takes office in January. Analysts noted that if Russian ships headquartered in Tartus depart the Mediterranean, they will be unable to access the Black Sea due to Turkey’s restrictions on passage through the Bosporus

Site Logo Search Ukraine Assad’s removal is a blow to Russia. This Is What It Means for the Ukrainian War. December 13, 2024, 06:33 GMT. By Roksolana Bychai and Steve Gutterman. A Russian soldier stands between paintings of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a checkpoint on Damascus’ outskirts in 2018. A Russian soldier stands between paintings of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (right) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a checkpoint on Damascus’ outskirts in 2018. When Russian President Vladimir Putin started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he appeared to anticipate that Russian soldiers would overthrow the government in weeks and reestablish Moscow’s power over the country after 30 years of independence.Russia would be willing to make significant contributions to the new alliance in Syria in order to maintain a presence there as a top priority,” Massicot told RFE/RL. “Russia will try to solidify agreements in Libya and Sudan as a partial offset.” According to some observers, Russia’s reputational setback in Syria may exacerbate Putin’s desire to control Ukraine. According to Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, the collapse of Assad has weakened Putin’s willingness to negotiate with Ukraine. “The war in Ukraine has, to some extent, cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise.”

Ruth Deyermond, a senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, believes the events in Syria are unlikely to have an impact on Russia’s ambition to succeed in Ukraine. “Given how tightly Putin’s presidency is tied to the war in Ukraine, how far he’s been willing to reshape Russian economy and society, how many lives he’s been willing to sacrifice for it, and how dependent he’s made Russia on other states (China, Iran, North Korea), it’s hard to imagine that the loss in Syria will make much difference because it’s hard to see how the Kremlin could take victory in Ukraine more seriously than they already do,” she wrote in a letter to the editor. Massicot said it would depend on how much of a Massicot argued that it would be determined by Russia’s ability to maintain a presence in Syria and the surrounding region.

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