U.S. officials have denied they wish to exclude anyone from the process. But U.S. suggestions that Europe would not be at the negotiating table has caused widespread alarm, and the positive vibes from U.S.-Russia meeting in Riyadh on February 18 also set nerves on edge. At this stage, there are two key questions: would Washington and Moscow even be able to agree on a mutually acceptable settlement to end the war in Ukraine, and if they did, what could anyone else do about it? The White House clearly wants peace. It’s not clear that Moscow does. Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kyiv on February 19 just hours after overnight Russian strikes pounded Ukraine. Some 250,000 people were left without power in subzero temperatures in the port city of Odesa.

In Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the State Duma that “the crisis should not be resolved with a cease-fire.” If the Kremlin is ready for a deal, it looks ready to push for a hard bargain. The nightmare scenario for Ukraine and its European allies is that Washington will agree to one. U.S. officials have said that both sides in the conflict will need to make concessions but have not provided detail of what Russia’s might be.
When asked about this at the Munich Security Conference on February 15, Kellogg said, “There will have to be territorial concessions,” which could include a renunciation of the use of force. Skeptics have warned that the US is giving away too much, too soon, in pursuit of a quick and easy diplomatic victory. But if there is a deal that Ukraine and Europe do not accept, what then? There has been a string of strong statements. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha was asked at Munich what Kyiv’s “non-acceptance” of a bad deal would look like? “We know how to resist. We proved this, on the battlefield,” he said.

But without ongoing U.S. support, Ukrainian defiance is going to be difficult. So far, Europe has provided more aid to Kyiv than the United States, according to figures from the Kiel Institute of the World Economy. The figures cover military, financial, and humanitarian aid. But Washington is the largest provider of military support, underlining the scale of the challenge Ukraine would face without U.S. backing. To make up the shortfall, Europe would have to nearly double its overall support to Kyiv. European leaders have repeated a mantra that they will provide assistance to Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” But this does not address the question of whether they would massively increase this assistance to fill the gap. Even talk of a European peace-keeping a European peace-keeping force, which would be deployed in Ukraine after a potential cease-fire or peace deal, has been with the caveat that it would require U.S. involvement and support.

Given fiscal restrictions and political differences, it’s doubtful whether Europe would step up. So far, every step of the way, it has needed America to hold its hand.