Toronto – The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to believe that a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is inevitable. However, it expresses that “nothing will be achieved through war.” In an interview with Brakhe Show, Amanuel Assefa, Deputy Chairman of the TPLF factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael, stated, “We are witnessing military shows that appear to be preparations for war.” According to him, the war will pose a geopolitical risk, and the two countries should proceed with caution.

“In my speculation the situation will not lead to a peaceful situation ; there is no question that it will lead to war,” he added. He described the situation between the two countries as “worrisome.” He explained it. “If the two countries start war, it will be Tigray that will be the theatre of war. Our people endured many sufferings. We have got enough war.” The Tigray region was devastated by the two years war between the TPLF led Tigray regional state and Abiy Ahmed led Federal government which also devastated the Afar and Amhara regions of Ethiopia. Amanuel also remarked about reported TPLF military leaders and Eritrean government relations. He dismissed it as baseless ; no evidence whatsoever. The TPLF or the security Forces leaders will not pursue an anti-Ethiopian government initiative to form an alliance with Eritrea or “other forces.” The “other forces” aren’t explained. There have been reports that some TPLF military leaders, who later professed support for the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael, were smuggling gold from Tigray mining locations through Eritrea. Eritrea has also refuted this. The TPLF appears to have recently established contacts with Egypt. Getahew Reda, President of the Tigray Interim Administration and leader of one of the TPLF groups, revealed a few months ago that Egypt provided help to the TPLF during the two-year conflict against the Abiy Ahmed-led government.

Egypt is now allying with Eritrea and Somalia apparently with the hope of weakening Ethiopia further. Last week, Egyptian FM Badr Abdelatty was in Asmara where he held talks with Eritrean president Isaias Afeworki on a range of issues including regional security. The relation between Eritrea and Ethiopia is near a threshold of military confrontation as the two countries have been trading accusations. A recent OpEd post by former Ethiopian President Mulatu Tehome published on Al Jazeera – which the Ethiopian government condemned later – accuses Eritrea of conspiring with one section of TPLF to incite instability in the Horn of Africa region. Eritrea accused Ethiopia of “warmongering.”