Officials are investigating what caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, which killed 38 people and left 29 survivors, as speculation grows that Russia’s military may have played a hand in the accident. Here’s what we know so far: How did the airplane crash? On Wednesday, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190, was flying from Baku to Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus area when it was diverted for unknown reasons.

It crashed while attempting to reach another airport in Aktau, western Kazakhstan. Cellphone footage appears to show the plane making a rapid fall before crashing and bursting in a fireball roughly two miles from Aktau Airport. Photos from the area show the rear section of the plane’s fuselage remaining intact after the accident, lying upside down in a field.

Officials are investigating what caused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, which killed 38 people and left 29 survivors, as speculation grows that Russia’s military may have played a hand in the accident. Here’s what we know so far: How did the airplane crash? On Wednesday, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190, was flying from Baku to Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus area when it was diverted for unknown reasons. It crashed while attempting to reach another airport in Aktau, western Kazakhstan.

The airline claimed 67 people were on board — 62 passengers and five crew members — and 38 died in the incident, with 29 survivors. Investigators have retrieved both of the so-called black boxes, the flight data and cockpit voice recorders, from the disaster scene. Why did the plane change its course? There were contradictory versions about why the plane’s crew diverted it.

Rosaviatsia, Russia’s civil aviation authority, first stated that the pilots appeared to have diverted to Aktau following a bird strike. Later, Russian and Azerbaijani officials stated that the plane had been redirected owing to fog or severe weather in Grozny. Then Russia claimed Ukrainian drones targeting the Grozny region were a cause.

Speaking at a news conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that while the reason of the disaster was unknown, severe weather led the jet to deviate from its intended trajectory. “The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” added the spokesperson. Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Rosaviatsia, claimed Friday that when the plane was preparing to land in Grozny in heavy fog, Ukrainian drones targeted the city, leading officials to block the area to air traffic.

Yadrov stated that after two unsuccessful landing attempts, the captain was offered alternate airports but chose to fly to Aktau, Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea instead. What are officials and aviation experts saying about the likely cause? Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia have all launched inquiries into the reason of the crash. The Kremlin has advised people to avoid jumping to conclusions.

A US official told CBS News that there were early indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system had struck the jet in a zone where Ukrainian and Russian forces had been exchanging drone and rocket fire for months. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, stated that if confirmed, it would highlight Russia’s irresponsibility in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday that U.S. officials “have seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defence systems.”

He confirmed to reporters that the US has intelligence or evidence indicating the potential, but stated that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are presently undertaking the inquiry, and the US will “respect that process.”

Meanwhile, independent aviation specialists questioned the bird strike explanation, citing damage to the plane’s fuselage as proof that it had been shot at. “It certainly does not look like a flock of birds,” said CBS News aviation safety analyst and former National Transportation Safety Board chairman Robert Sumwalt. “Birds don’t fly at the type of altitude that the initial damage occurred on this airplane,” Sumwalt noted. Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military specialist, stated that photos of the wrecked plane’s tail show damage consistent with shrapnel from tiny surface-to-air missiles like the Pantsyr-S1 air defence system.

“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he informed me. Speaking to reporters on a conference call on December 27, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on suspicions of Russian involvement in the disaster, saying it was up to investigators to identify the reason. Survivors noticed noises before the collision.

Survivors noticed noises before the collision. Passengers and crew who survived the accident told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises as the plane was hovering over Grozny. According to flight attendant Aydan Rahimli, the oxygen masks released immediately after hearing a single noise. She stated that she went to provide first aid on a coworker, Zulfugar Asadov, when they heard another explosion.

Asadov stated that the noises sounded like something impacting the plane from the outside. Shortly after, he had a severe injury, similar to a “deep wound, the arm was lacerated as if someone hit me in the arm with an axe,” he stated. He refuted claims by Kazakh officials that an oxygen canister exploded inside the jet. Two other survivors reported hearing explosions before the plane crashed: Jerova Salihat told Azerbaijani television in an interview in the hospital that “something exploded” near her leg, and Vafa Shabanova stated that “there were two explosions in the sky, and an hour and a half later the plane crashed to the ground.”