What We Learned From High-Stakes US-Russia Talks In Saudi Arabia – Analysis

by | Feb 19, 2025 | Family | 0 comments

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended a four-hour meeting in Riyadh to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, with the Kremlin voicing new demands. The meeting was part of the US diplomatic push to bring the conflict to an end.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a four-hour meeting in Riyadh as part of a diplomatic effort to end the war. U.S. officials described the talks as exploratory and could pave the way for an in-person meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

These include fully restoring their diplomatic missions in Washington and Moscow after years of sanctions and expulsions, appointing a high-level team to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, exploring further “geopolitical and economic cooperation that could result from an end to the conflict in Ukraine,” and ensuring that the US and Russian delegations present in Riyadh will remain engaged in discussions in the future. Lavrov described the meeting as “very useful” and stated that Moscow intends to appoint a special envoy as soon as possible. “I have every reason to believe that the American side understands our position,” Mr. Lavrov said. Russia’s chief foreign policy adviser, Yury Ushakov, who was part of the country’s delegation, added that the two sides briefly discussed the conditions needed for a Putin-Trump summit. However, he added that the decision to begin deeper talks with the United States about Ukraine would ultimately rest with Putin himself.

It’s useful for the Trump administration’s senior national-security team to hear these Russian positions and they can take them back to the president,” John Deni, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told RFE/RL. “It’s still too early to know what the Russians might be willing to give up or hold onto.”

Key Takeaways From Saudi Meeting

(Diplomatic) Boots on the Ground. Both sides agreed to re-staff their diplomatic positions in Washington and Moscow. It’s a diplomatic feud that precedes the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, spanning the first Trump administration (with hundreds expelled on both sides) and even the Obama administration, which closed two diplomatic facilities in the United States. Increasing the number of diplomats on the ground is widely regarded as a noncontroversial decision. Prior to Riyadh, the Kremlin made it clear that it wants the compounds back. Give Peace a Chance. The delegations decided to form a high-level team to focus solely on the Ukraine situation. But the devil’s in the details: Is NATO membership off the table? European peacekeepers? More weapons for Kiev? Fewer sanctions on Moscow? We won’t.

‘Closer Relations and Economic Cooperation.’ That can mean a variety of things, but one piece of low-hanging fruit for improved relations is space collaboration. For years, Russia and the United States have mostly succeeded in keeping their collaborative space activities politically neutral. That has weakened in recent years. Signing a new agreement between NASA and the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, would be a simple, uncontroversial step.

What Came From The Meetings?

The meeting appears to have laid the groundwork for future talks between Moscow and Washington, with both Rubio and Lavrov stating that each side will reinstate staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow to establish missions to support Ukraine peace talks, bilateral relations, and cooperation in general. According to a statement from the US State Department, delegates from both nations have agreed to “address irritants” in their ties in order to normalize diplomatic relations after years of hostilities. Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said both countries will consider “future cooperation,” but a precise date is yet unknown, stressing, “One phone call followed by one meeting is insufficient to establish long-term peace.” She said that the negotiations in Riyadh are just the beginning of a long process.
Lavrov stated that the two parties “practically agreed” on the need to resolve concerns with the operation of diplomatic posts. Regarding Ukraine, he stated that there is “a mutual desire” to find answers, and Russia will wait for the United States to appoint its delegates. “After that, relevant consultations will begin and will be regular,” he announced. The Russian foreign minister stated that any deployment of NATO soldiers to Ukraine, as suggested by some Western governments, would be a “completely unacceptable” idea for the Kremlin. Separately, Russian officials stated that a long-term peace settlement in Ukraine will be impossible without addressing a broader range of security concerns across Europe.

“A comprehensive long-term settlement is impossible without a thorough consideration of security issues on the continent,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on February 18. Peskov also stated that Putin would be willing to talk with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “if necessary.” Putin had previously stated that he was unwilling to speak with Zelenskyy because his authority is “illegitimate,” citing the fact that Ukraine has not held elections since Russia’s full-scale invasion over three years ago. Speaking in Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that Moscow wants NATO to withdraw its 2008 promise to grant Ukraine membership in the military alliance and for Kyiv to agree to remain neutral.

What Happens Next?

Both sides agreed to establish envoys and move the talks further. Rubio also hinted at the EU’s participation in the future, saying that “there are other parties that have sanctions, the European Union is going to have to be at the table at some point, because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.” According to Jana Puglierin, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Kyiv and its European allies have watched anxiously from the sidelines as U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh, and fears are growing in Ukraine and European capitals that Trump will cut a hasty deal with Moscow that ignores their security concerns. She argues that European leaders are currently dealing with various “turning
points” set off by Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as well as recent comments by top U.S. officials suggesting Europe will need to play a larger part in security issues.

“February 2022 destroyed our faith in a collective security order with Russia and showed us the dark side of our fundamental dependence on Russia and China in critical areas,” she told the audience. “February 2025 shows us that the Americans no longer feel responsible for European security — and that their interests are fundamentally different from ours.” On February 17, European leaders attended emergency discussions in Paris to discuss the Ukraine conflict and European security issues, but no consensus was reached. Following the meeting in Saudi Arabia, U.S. national-security adviser Michael Waltz said any postwar peace guarantee would have to be “European-led,” echoing US officials’ calls for European allies to increase defense spending and praising Britain and France for “talking about contributing more forcefully to Ukraine’s security.”

Zeleneskyy has criticized the talks due to their lack of a Ukrainian representative and he called for “fair” peace talks about ending the war, arguing they should also involve the European Union, Turkey, and Britain. The Atlantic Council’s Deni said any potential settlement that can be reached is still likely far off and will require further discussions with Ukraine and European governments. He added the meeting in Riyadh should be seen as the latest U.S. attempt to reset relations with Russia, following similar efforts by former President George W. Bush in 2001 and former President Barack Obama in 2009. Each of those diplomatic pushes ended with strained ties and new geopolitical flashpoints in Georgia and Ukraine.

“At a certain point you need to speak to your adversary and diplomacy needs to be in the U.S. toolbox,” Deni said. “Reset efforts make sense, but in the past they’ve ended in disappointment.” Reid Standish is RFE/RL’s China Global Affairs correspondent based in Prague and author of the China In Eurasia briefing. He focuses on Chinese foreign policy in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and has reported extensively about China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Beijing’s internment camps in Xinjiang. Prior to joining RFE/RL, Reid was an editor at Foreign Policy magazine and its Moscow correspondent. He has also written for The Atlantic and The Washington Post.

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