— A tumultuous week that has seen two emergency summits in Europe and concerned remarks from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlights the growing unease in cities from Kyiv to London. Specifically, Washington and Moscow might try to reach their own agreement on Ukraine’s future without Kyiv and US friends in Europe. US President Donald Trump has added to the stress with his post on Truth Social, accusing Zelenskyy of being a dictator and claiming that “we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia.” Officials in the United States have denied wishing to exclude anyone from the process. However, U.S. indications that Europe will not be at the negotiation table has generated significant worry, and the position table has caused widespread alarm, and the positive vibes from U.S.-Russia meeting in Riyadh on February 18 also set nerves on edge.

At this point, two key concerns remain: will Washington and Moscow be able to reach a mutually acceptable deal to end the war in Ukraine, and if so, what can anybody else do?

The White House is definitely seeking calm. It’s unclear whether Moscow does. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, arrived in Kyiv on February 19, just hours after Russia launched a midnight attack on Ukraine. In Odesa, a port city, over 250,000 people were left without power due to subzero conditions. In Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the State Duma that “the crisis should not be resolved with a cease-fire.” If the Kremlin is ready to make a deal, it appears to be willing to strike a hard bargain. The nightmare situation for Ukraine and its European allies is that Washington agrees to one.

U.S. officials have stated that both parties in the crisis will need to make concessions, but have not specified what Russia’s may be. When asked about this at the Munich Security Conference on February 15, Kellogg remarked, “There will have to be territorial concessions,” which may include a renunciation of the use of force. Skeptics have warned that the US is handing away too much, too soon, in pursuit of a quick and easy diplomatic victory. But what if Ukraine and Europe refuse to accept the deal? There have been some forceful statements. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha was asked in Munich what Kyiv’s “non-acceptance” of a terrible deal would entail. “We know how.” to resist. We proved this, on the battlefield,” he said.

But without continuous US assistance, Ukrainian disobedience will be tough. According to estimates from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe has supplied more aid to Kyiv than the United States. The figures include military, financial, and humanitarian aid. However, Washington is the greatest provider of military support, emphasizing the magnitude of the struggle Ukraine would confront without US assistance. To cover the difference, Europe would have to roughly quadruple its overall support for Kyiv. European leaders have repeatedly stated that they will provide help to Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” However, this does not answer the question of whether they would significantly enhance this support to close the deficit. There’s even talk of European peacekeeping The force, which would be deployed in Ukraine following a potential cease-fire or peace agreement, has been given the condition that it would require US cooperation and assistance. Given fiscal constraints and political divides, it is doubtful whether Europe will step up. So far, it has relied on America to guide it through each step. Ray Furlong is a Senior International Correspondent of RFE/RL. He has reported for RFE/RL from the Balkans, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and other locations since joining the organization in 2014. He previously worked for the BBC for 17 years as a foreign correspondent in Prague and Berlin, as well as a roving international reporter throughout Europe and the former Soviet Union.